Global Warming, a real issue?

by seminarian

Doug Moo has been teaching the winterim class on the book of James at The Master’s Seminary this week. One of the points upon which he launched into application is the idea of “widows and orphans” in Scripture which represents the helpless and needy. To this, he discussed global warming, and how it is our Christian response to curb it now because it will impact the poor/needy most.

I’m going to simply use the issue as an opportunity to illustrate principles of interpretation and a discussion of conviction. To do this I’ll interact with a few statistics of environmentaldefense.org:

Rank of 2006 as hottest year on record in the continental United States.

We have not been keeping reliable temperature records except for the last one hundred years, and even these don’t match the UN IPCC model which expected a much higher change in temperature. What can we reasonably deduce from the fact that temperatures are higher now? Is this a cycle that will reverse, or is it a trend?

Rank of America as top global warming polluter in the world.

Is this as compelling as it seems? We can expect one of the largest economies, even if more efficient and with higher controls, to be the top polluters. The economy of the US is the largest in the world in terms of GDP. This isn’t to say that we can’t do better and should, but the statistic is not astounding nor unexpected.

Percent increase of America’s carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels since 1990.

There has been a 20% increase over 17 years, which seems to be growing slower than the economy. Let us assume that global warming is an issue and that carbon dioxide emissions do perfectly correlate. If the percentage increase in co2 has been declining over the recent years, and as new technologies of alternate and cleaner energy become more and more accepted, then there is a reasonable expectation that despite future economic growth, the co2 emissions will eventually be on the decline.

Percent increase of America’s carbon dioxide emissions forecasted by 2020 if we do not cap pollution.

So the previous statistic was 20% over 17 years, and this is 15% over 13. This is actually a smaller year-to-year increase. Not only that, but this is assumed with no cap whatsoever. So, apparently if we do nothing about emissions, the rate of increase is on the decline.

Percent decrease in U.S. global warming pollution required by 2050 to prevent the worst consequences of global warming.

Number of days by which the US fire season has increased over the past 20 years - tied closely to increased temperatures and earlier snowmelt.

Number of people around the world who could be displaced by more intense droughts, sea level rise and flooding by 2080.

Number of U.S. mayors (representing 55 million Americans) who have signed the U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement pledging to meet or beat Kyoto goals in their communities.

Number of federal bills passed to cap America’s global warming pollution.

Number of times President Bush has mentioned “climate change” or “global warming” in his previous six State of the Union speeches.

To conclude, it has not been determined with certainty that global warming is an issue. It has also not been persuasively argued that global warming is out of control. There is a possibility, and a very good possibility at that, but at what percentage of certainty will we become convinced?

This is what I mean by interpretation. Even when approaching the Bible, which is clear, we must acknowledge a degree of uncertainty. Sometimes we forget that there is uncertainty, not in the reality of whether something exists or not, but whether we are right in concluding that on the basis of the data and evidence. There either is global warming or there isn’t. The world was either created in 6 literal days or it wasn’t. Everyone must weigh the evidence and people come to different conclusions.

However, and here the a major application, we must come to a conclusion. We must come up with convictions, especially without all of the data and certainty, for this is the nature of faith. We should spend our energies and our faculties in this endeavor. We will not be exonerated or let off by our naivete, but demonstrate by our searching the earnestness of our inquiry. We must do all things in faith, and when we decide, we must be fully convinced in our own mind (Rom 14:5).

Though the facts are not in for global warming, I don’t think it is an issue of importance, because I don’t believe it is an issue. Yet, I respect those that are campaigning for what they believe will protect and benefit those whose care has been entrusted us.

Source :http://seminarian.wordpress.com/2008/01/08/global-warming-a-real-issue/

Understanding our behavioral blind spots

By Don Grant

Investment decisions are among the most important life choices a person can make. They may determine where your children will be able to go to college, when you’ll be able to retire, or what kind of lifestyle you’ll enjoy after you retire.

Unfortunately, these are also some of the most difficult choices a person can make. In order to make sound decisions, we need to be aware of our own psychological blind spots. These can lead us to make persistently poor financial choices—errors that over time can do significant damage to our portfolios.

Chains of Thought

Traditional financial theory assumes all investment decisions are made rationally, based on the best available information. In theory, the result is an efficient market—one in which prices accurately reflect fundamentals, such as earnings and interest rates.
However, it’s not always easy to reconcile financial theory with financial reality. Investors often appear determined to ignore the fundamentals, both in bidding stock prices up and slamming them back down again.

“In many important ways, real financial markets do not resemble the ones we would imagine if we only read finance textbooks,” notes Richard Thaler, a professor at the University of Chicago and a leading behavioral finance researcher.

It’s not that investors are totally irrational, Thaler and other researchers argue, but rather that their thinking can be influenced by mental biases. These quirks can lead the to make choices that appear intuitively correct, but produce poor performance:

• Overconfidence. Investors generally assume they know more than they actually do. They also tend to remember previous investment decisions in ways that exaggerate
their own foresight. This can lead to overly aggressive trading and a reluctance to admit—and correct—mistakes.

• Mental Accounting. Financial experts often advise investors to take their entire portfolio into account when making investment decisions. Yet, many investors unconsciously divide their wealth into separate pots. If they have a big gain, for example, they may think of it as essentially “free” money and take greater risks with it than they would with their “own” money.

• Anchoring. Logically, investors should always base their decisions on current prices and expectations, . Instead, they often become fixed on past events, such as the price
they paid for a particular stock. Investors will often refuse to sell at a price lower than that—even when it makes more sense to accept their loss and invest their remaining
money elsewhere.

• Framing. How people view a decision often depends on how their choices are presented. For example, in one study researchers asked participants how much they would be willing to pay to avoid a one-in-a-thousand chance of being killed. The average answer was $1,000. Participants were then asked how much they would demand to accept the same risk. This time, the answers ranged as high as $200,000. From an economic point of view, the two questions were identical, but subjects saw them very differently.

• Loss Aversion. In a completely rational market, the risk of loss and the possibility of gain should carry equal weight. However, on average investors place twice as much
importance on avoiding a loss as they do on making a gain. In other words, to accept a 50% chance of losing $100, most people will demand at least a 50% chance of earning $200.

The Value of Advice
Are investors doomed to repeat these mistakes? Maybe not. Some studies have shown that the more investors know about the investment process, the less likely they are to be
misled by behavioral biases.

This is one reason we encourage investors to develop prudent, long-term investment strategies that take into account their goals and tolerance for risk. While this doesn’t
guarantee investment success, it can at least reduce the risk of being led astray by behavioral blind spots. That’s something even the smartest investor might want to keep in mind.

Don Grant is a Financial Advisor with Smith Barney located in Wichita and may be reached at 316.630.4415.
Source :http://www.derbyreporter.com/opinions

Enjoying spring warbler migration

Have you noticed friends or coworkers looking a little sleep-deprived lately? Perhaps these same people complain of a sore neck, and look past you into the trees while you’re talking. You may be encountering birders caught up in the excitement of spring migration.

Sure, a variety of birds have been migrating through central Illinois since February. During the late winter and early spring approximately 240 species of birds belonging to 39 families pass this way. But for most birders, the highlight of spring is songbird migration, and that becomes most intense in the next couple of weeks.

There are great numbers of birds and a great variety of species represented in this wave. According to Dave Enstrom of the Illinois Natural History Survey in Champaign, hundreds of thousands of individuals belonging to over 120 species move through or into central Illinois at this time.

Most exciting among these are members of a family of birds known as warblers. [The hooded warbler, right, was photographed at Busey Woods in Urbana by Greg Lambeth. Click here to see Greg's other bird photos.] These are strikingly beautiful little birds that average only about a third of an ounce in weight. Although they are small, warblers migrate long distances, from wintering ranges in Mexico, Central, and South America to breeding areas in the U.S. and Canada.

As they move north, warblers feed on insects, especially the caterpillars, bees and wasps that populate the crowns of trees as they flower and leaf out. (This habit of the birds accounts for “warbler neck” among birders who spend too much time looking up at them.)

Although 20 species of warblers breed in Illinois, only 7 species nest in Champaign County. Most individuals of the 37 warbler species that occur in Illinois are just passing through on their way further north.

Ironically, the highly fragmented nature of the central Illinois landscape makes for great warbler watching. Migrating birds that need trees to feed in when they stop are concentrated in urban areas and the isolated woodlands that remain here.

It seems almost foolish to try to describe in words the vivid beauty that prompts birders to get out before sunrise day after day. Some warblers are all about color. The blackburnian warbler’s throat and head, for instance, exhibit such a bright combination of orange and yellow that it looks to be on fire. [Click here to see photo and species account at the Cornell Lab of Ornithology's "All About Birds" website.] And the cerulean warbler—well, if you’ve only experienced “cerulean” as the color of a crayon, you’ve got to see this bird.

Other warblers are about patterns. The aptly named black and white warbler, for example, makes up for its lack of color in the same way a zebra does, by sporting stripes so bold they appear to be painted.

If you’re new to birding, or just interested in getting out with people who share your enthusiasm, you might want to check out the Sunday morning bird walks hosted by the Champaign County Audubon Society at Busey Woods in Urbana. Walks start out from the parking lot of the Anita Purves Nature center at 7:30 a.m. and last until about 9:00.

Posted by Rob Kanter
Source : http://environmentalalmanac.blogspot.com

Why not bike?

The weather couldn’t be better. Gas prices are sky high. Do you need any more inducement to save a trip or two in the car by getting out your bicycle? Here’s why I think you should.

Bicycling is good for the planet. It requires no fossil fuel, and so alleviates all of the environmental damage caused by drilling for, transporting, and processing oil. It uses no biofuel, and so exists outside the complicated push and pull over using crops for energy. It emits no greenhouse gasses to degrade the planet over the long term, or other pollutants to degrade human health in the short term. It creates no noise pollution. It decreases traffic congestion. It decreases wear and tear on roads (which cost more and more to fix as the price of oil rises.) It decreases the need for parking, which frees up space for higher purposes, and provides the host of other benefits that come from having less pavement.

Bicycling is also good for people. It gets you out of the artificial environment of your car and puts you in touch with the natural world—the real world—even when you’re riding in the city. It allows you to see and also smell the gorgeous magnolias as you ride by. It allows you to hear the songs and calls of birds. (And if you’re attuned to birds, to be reminded of how life in the Midwest is connected to life elsewhere as spring migration progresses.) It allows you to connect with other people who are walking or cycling, even if it’s just to say hello. Think of how different it is to pull up next to neighbor or coworker on a bike than to pull up next to them in a car.

Bicycling allows you to reconnect with yourself through contemplation, away from the pull of a car radio or CD player. Bicycling gives you the satisfaction of getting from one place to another by the power of your own body, a deep satisfaction, but one that can be forgotten when it’s experienced too infrequently. Like any other form of physical activity, bicycling regularly is energizing, not draining, an antidote to the sluggishness that can come from working in a store or office.

If you are hesitant about biking because of how drivers of cars behave or how poorly the traffic patterns on some streets accommodate it, take heart. The cities of Champaign and Urbana have both recently approved well thought out plans to facilitate cycling in the years to come. [Links to plans for Champaign and Urbana.] These plans include a mix of re-marking streets where cars and bikes can operate together well, along with creating side paths for cycling next to roads with high speed limits and few crossings. Of course Illinois law already treats bicycles as vehicles, and it is perfectly reasonable and legal for cyclists to use the streets as vehicles already. The point of marking routes for cycling is to help clarify for drivers and cyclists alike how they should behave on the road.

If you want further encouragement still, know that May is National Bike Month, which will be marked by a slew of activities in Champaign-Urbana. You can kick off Bike Month with the second annual Bicycle Festival set to take place Sunday May 4th at Hessel Park in Champaign and hosted by the group Champaign County Bikes. From there, you may just want to see where your wheels take you.

Posted by Rob Kanter
Source : http://environmentalalmanac.blogspot.com

Vehicles and Fuels

Motor vehicles are a major source of air pollution worldwide. In many urban areas, motor vehicles collectively produce 50 to 90 percent of local air pollution, depending upon the pollutant. Vehicles can also produce a significant amount of the toxic or hazardous pollutants found in our air. Motor vehicles are typically divided into on-road and nonroad categories for regulatory purposes. Most nations set standards for both engines and fuels in order to reduce air pollution. In the U.S., only EPA and the State of California are permitted to establish new vehicle and fuel standards; other states may adopt California standards if they choose. In addition to engine and fuel characteristics, mobile source emissions are also affected by ambient conditions, driving behavior, and transportation system characteristics.

Cars, Trucks and Buses

Automobiles, motorcycles, trucks, and buses are commonly referred to as “on-road” mobile sources. Automobiles and light-duty trucks are a major source of air pollution all over the world. Emissions from these vehicles come from the tailpipe. Gasoline powered vehicles also generate evaporative emissions from fuel tanks, out of the oil reservoir, and around engine seals. Gasoline refueling vapors are also a significant source of emissions. Most cars and light-duty trucks are fueled by gasoline, and generate large quantities of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Motorcycles represent a large part of the vehicle fleet in developing countries. Two-stroke motorcycles are especially polluting and can emit more air pollution than a small fleet of modern automobiles. Most heavy-duty trucks and buses are powered by diesel fuel, which can generate significant amounts of NOx and sulfur oxide (SOx) emissions (especially in areas with high-sulfur content fuels), as well as potentially cancer-causing particulate matter. Emission controls for modern gasoline vehicles are capable of reducing vehicle emissions by more than 95 percent compared to uncontrolled carbureted vehicles. Diesel vehicle controls have also provided substantial reductions, especially for particulate matter (PM), although further NOx reductions require highly advanced engine technologies or retrofit of aftertreatment devices.

Fuels

Gasoline and diesel fuels are complex mixtures of many different chemicals. The precise combination of chemicals determines key fuel properties such as energy content, volatility (i.e., ability to vaporize), and the fuel’s ability to ignite and burn in the engine. In turn, the various fuel properties effect vehicle emissions, performance, and fuel cost. Fuel producers have developed different gasoline and diesel formulations designed for specific vehicle and engine technologies to provide adequate vehicle performance and decreased emissions at a reasonable cost. In fact, a vehicle and its fuel should be viewed as an integrated system, with fuel properties designed to match specific engine technologies, and vice versa. Fuel standards can also be designed to control specific pollutants. Depending upon the air quality conditions in a particular local area, fuel properties can be adjusted to reduce CO, hydrocarbon, NOx, or even PM emissions from vehicles. Some areas change their fuel formulations on a seasonal basis to address wintertime CO and summertime ozone problems. In many instances adopting new fuel standards can bring about immediate, cost-effective emission reductions, without making changes to an area’s vehicle fleet. Other fuel changes may be designed for the introduction of new, cleaner vehicles over the long-term. Alternatives to traditional fuels include compressed natural gas, biodiesel, ethanol, liquefied natural gas, methanol and propane. Hydrogen has been identified as a potential “fuel of the future,” with little to no net emissions. The advent of fuel cells as a potentially viable power source for vehicles has further raised the interest in hydrogen as a fuel.

Other Engines and Equipment

Offroad mobile sources are defined as motorized equipment that is portable or self-propelled, but not certified for operation on roadways. Typical offroad equipment includes construction and farm equipment, airplanes, ships, locomotives, lawn and garden equipment, mobile generators and pumps, among many others. Increases in air traffic and shipping, along with construction activities, have resulted in significant emissions from nonroad sources in recent years. As emission controls on automobiles, trucks, and buses become more prevalent, the relative amount of air emissions generated by nonroad sources is becoming more significant. In general, smaller, lighter equipment is dominated by gasoline engines, while larger equipment relies heavily on diesel engines. In most cases offroad equipment is not centrally registered. In addition, offroad equipment operation profiles can vary widely depending upon the specific application and operator. For these reasons, engine populations, use patterns, and resulting emissions from these sources are much more uncertain than for on-road sources.

Source : http://www.cleanairworld.org/TopicDetails.asp?parent=24

Measuring Air Pollution

Air pollution can be directly measured as it is emitted by a source in mass/volume of emission (e.g., grams/m3) or mass/process parameter (e.g., grams/Kg fuel consumed or grams/second). Air pollution can also be measured in the atmosphere as a concentration (e.g., micrograms/m3). Ambient air monitoring data is used to determine air quality, establish the extent of air pollution problems, assess whether established standards are being met, and characterize the potential human health risk in an area. Alternatively, air pollution concentrations can be simulated using computer models, and then validated using data collected from direct measurements at selected monitors or sources. Air pollution data and models are used together to examine the impacts of control strategies on the ambient air.

Air Quality Modeling

As an alternative to or in conjunction with direct monitoring, computer models are often used to predict the levels of pollutants emitted from various types of sources, and how these emissions eventually impact ambient air quality over time. The models themselves vary in terms of sophistication, accuracy and precision of their outputs. Different models are used to estimate emission rates, source activity levels, and ambient air quality impacts. For example, models are available for estimating emissions from mobile and stationary sources, predicting meteorological factors, locating potential emission point sources, and the likely photochemical and dispersion characteristics of air pollution, as well as predicting traffic patterns and congestion. In addition, emissions models and preprocessors can be used to provide input data for air quality models that need emissions based on chemical species, and broken down into very fine temporal (e.g., grams/second) and spatial (1 km x 1 km grid) resolution.

Monitoring

Air pollution monitoring activities are typically separated into two classifications: source monitoring and ambient air monitoring. Monitoring can be made directly using continuous measurement instrumentation or manual methods, or remotely using optical sensing systems. Source monitoring involves the measurement of emissions directly from a fixed or mobile emission source, typically in a contained duct, vent, stack or chimney. Stationary source data is used to determine control technology performance, confirm established permit limits are being met, and as input to ozone and/or health risk prediction models. Major stationary sources may have continuous emissions monitors (CEMs) installed to report real-time emissions based on pre-established reporting cycles. Ambient air monitoring involves the measurement of specific pollutants present in an immediate surrounding atmosphere. Most Major urban areas often operate several ambient air monitoring instruments, each dedicated to measuring specific target pollutants.

Source : http://www.cleanairworld.org/TopicDetails.asp?parent=24

Control Strategies

Reductions in air pollution can be achieved by a variety of methods including pollution prevention, control technologies, and control measures, and may be implemented through regulatory, market-based or voluntary programs. A control strategy may include a combination of different voluntary measures or mandatory controls, may focus on one or several pollutants or sources of air pollution, and can be implemented on a local, regional, national, or international scale. Energy efficiency, process changes,, and solventless coatings are examples of pollution prevention strategies. Many of the air quality improvements to date have been achieved through technological developments. Air pollution control technologies have achieved stunning results in reducing emissions from the manufacturing and mobile source sectors by as much as 90 to 99 percent. Continuing advances in both pollution prevention and air pollution control technology should enable further emissions reductions to offset increased emissions caused by continued population growth and worldwide economic development.

Mercury and Other Toxic Air Pollutants

Control of mercury emissions is based upon reduction of the emissions and pollutant releases into the atmosphere by the industries that use mercury within their processes, emit mercury or dispose of products containing mercury, such as thermometers. In the U.S., national emission standards for hazardous air pollutants (NESHAPS) have been established for industries emitting toxic air emissions that require the use of Maximum Achievable Control Technology (MACT) for compliance. For example, mercury NESHAP/MACT standards have been promulgated for hazardous and municipal waste incineration, commercial/industrial boilers, chlor-alkali plants, and portland cement kilns. Strategies for controlling mercury and other toxic air pollutants include pollution prevention measures, including product substitution, process modification, work-practice standards and materials separation; coal cleaning (relevant to mercury control); flue gas treatment technologies; and alternative strategies. Significant sources of toxic air pollution are motor vehicles, so programs to reduce emissions from cars, trucks and buses also decrease concentrations of toxic air pollutants. These programs include reformulated gasoline, the national low emission vehicle (NLEV) program, and gasoline sulfur control requirements, among others.

Ozone

Ozone control strategies generally target nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), the primary contributors to ozone formation in the troposphere. Control strategies may comprise a set of regulations that specify emission limits and/or control equipment that are deemed to be reasonable available control technology (RACT), best available control technology (BACT), lowest achievable emission rates (LAER), depending on the severity of the air pollution problem in the area. NOx and VOC control equipment or programs may address specific industrial processes;on-road vehicles; nonroad equipment such as locomotives; or nonpoint sources such as small industrial boilers, dry cleaners, and consumer solvents. Pollution prevention measures such as use of non- or low-VOC content solvents and coatings can also be part of an effective ozone control strategy.

Particle Pollution

Particle pollution, or particulate matter (PM) pollution control strategies reduce primary PM emitted directly by a source, or PM precursor emissions (NOx, SOx, VOC, and ammonia) that react in the atmosphere to form fine PM. Control strategies could include a set of regulations that specifies emission limits in either mass or opacity units. PM control equipment or programs may address specific industrial processes; nonroad equipment such as locomotives and other equipment that burns diesel fuel; and nonpoint sources such as dust from agricultural activities and travel on paved and unpaved roads, and smoke from fireplaces and woodstoves.

Source : http://www.cleanairworld.org/TopicDetails.asp?parent=7