The future of President Susilo Bambang Yudho-yono (SBY) and Vice President Jusuf Kalla's (JK) partnership is being questioned: Will they separate after five years of solid partnership? SBY's strategy of not mentioning who he prefers to be his vice presidential candidate puts Kalla and his Golkar Party in a position to look at other options.
Although this issue is not on the agenda of Golkar's current national meeting, it is presumed it will get the most attention from the party's elite and from the media coverage.
Those who support the pair continue to argue that one should never to change the winning team. SBY, so far, has a better opportunity of securing his second term if he retains JK as his vice president.
SBY's cautious character and JK's pragmatic and decisive one is the best combination to lead a nation in change. SBY's Democratic Party and JK's Golkar Party coalition provide more guarantees to attain the 20 percent legislative seat minimum requirement for a party or coalition of parties to be eligible to nominate a presidential and vice presidential candidate.
Theoretically, there may be a maximum of five presidential candidates. But it is predicted there will only be three candidates in the 2009 presidential election.
First, is the incumbent President SBY, and his Vice President JK.
Second, is former president Me-gawati, who is nominated by her party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).
Third, an alternative candidate, who would be nominated by a coalition of small parties or a coalition of Islamic-based political parties like the Crescent Star Party (PBB), the United Development Party (PPP) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).
If SBY prefers another name to team up with him, Golkar may join this coalition and be its backbone. Golkar can take the lead in building an alternative block to challenge the two current blocks: Block S refers to Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Block M refers to Megawati Soekarnoputri.
President SBY has openly announced his bid to contest a second term, but without naming who will be his running mate. But such a delaying tactic is seen by some analysts as a signal that President SBY may widen his choice for his next vice president.
Several names have appeared in the media, like Finance Minister Sri Mulyani, Muhammadiyah chairman Din Syamsuddin and People's Consultative Assembly Speaker Hidayat Nur Wahid from the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).
If SBY does go with another name, JK and the Golkar Party will have some options to consider.
First, despite what the pollsters say about his unlikely chance of success, Jusuf Kalla runs for president. This would be ideal for JK and also for the Golkar Party. JK has all the requirements to be a president. Some of Golkar's senior members are looking at this option. If this is the way to go, the challenge would lie with voters' behavior. Popularity, and not competence, has more appeal to voters.
The Indonesian Survey Institute's (LSI) survey in September showed JK is only supported by 2 percent of voters. His popularity in 2003 was only 1 percent. It means that in five years JK's popularity only increased by 1 percent. The LSI is not alone in such a prediction.
Danareksa political surveys in October and November 2008 showed only a very small number of voters (1 percent and 2 percent respectively) support JK for president.
With such survey results, JK and Golkar should come up with a brilliant strategy to make an impact in this election. Although probably an impossible mission, JK still has an opportunity if he comes up with the right issues defining this election, and with the right man as his vice presidential candidate.
The second option is Golkar naming JK as vice president, teaming him up with another Golkar figure as the presidential candidate, such as Sultan Hamengkubuwono X. But this choice is unlikely, because if he is to remain as number two, JK would prefer to stay with SBY.
It would not be impossible for JK to pick up the Sultan as his vice presidential candidate. Some may say JK does not need to run in the presidential election. He can be a great kingmaker. But people, including JK, usually choose to be the king themselves.
Of course, there are many possibilities, and it is still very difficult to predict who will be the winner of the July presidential election.
The writers are members of The Jakarta Post's Research and Development Department.
Source :http://old.thejakartapost.com/detaileditorial.asp?fileid=20090221.E02&irec=2
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